A Lethal Game of Cat and Mouse

“A nd if there would have been Russian soldiers there?” Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu asked Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman during his visit to Israel last week. Shoigu the military strongman who’s viewed as a potential heir to Putin was referring to the Israeli Air Force attack against Syrian SA-5 antiaircraft batteries that fired on Israeli jets during a reconnaissance mission in Lebanon. He was also voicing the Russians’ exasperation at having learned about the Israeli foray in real time with no advance warning to evacuate their forces.

“Stop attacking Syrian air defense systems; otherwise we’ll supply them with other more advanced capabilities ” Shoigu then said. He justified Russia’s support for Assad with claims that the regime is preventing a much worse scenario which could easily set the Israeli border aflame.

Shoigu’s concerns for the Russian soldiers are justified; there is barely a combat unit in Syria without a Russian presence a fact that is not lost on Israel. Indeed one year ago Israel mounted an attack near the Palmyra airport fully aware that a Russian facility existed in close proximity to the target. After that attack Russia sent an irate message to Lieberman and the Israeli ambassador in Moscow was summoned together with the IDF military attaché for a scolding.

Yet Israel isn’t likely to ignore Syrian aggression even if the Russians are less than pleased with their response. Discussing the recent trickle of fire former defense minister Moshe Yaalon told me last week that “it is imperative to preserve our interests. Our policy was not to intervene in the events in Syria and that strategy proved itself. Still we did take action — but it was quiet and that’s how it should continue.”