A Nightmare Named Nigel    

You could almost hear the champagne corks popping in Labour HQ over this exact reversal of positions from 2019. At the last election, Farage’s Brexit Party made a deal with the Tories, and the right-wing vote consolidated behind Boris Johnson, helping him secure a large majority. Now, Farage’s leadership of Reform UK, the Brexit Party’s successor, and his election as an MP, will eat into the Conservatives’ already-diminished vote share. According to YouGov, 25% of 2019 Conservative voters are considering voting Reform. This will most likely gift Labour with an even larger majority than the 100-plus seat landslide they’re predicted to win.

Farage emerged as a force in UK politics in the early 2010s as leader of the UK Independence Party on an anti-immigration, anti-EU ticket. UKIP first shocked the establishment by coming out on top in the 2014 European Parliament elections. In local elections held that same day, they got the third-highest vote share and went from three to 166 councillors. Two Conservative MPs defected to UKIP and held their seats in subsequent by-elections, though one went back to Conservative at the 2015 election. Spooked by Farage’s ability to attract the Tory right, David Cameron committed to holding a referendum on EU membership if he got elected in 2015. In that election, UKIP’s vote share quadrupled to become the third highest across the UK.

Since 2021, Farage has been honorary president of Reform UK, the Brexit Party’s successor, and he’s been hammering the Conservatives on their immigration record. Legal migration has tripled since they took office in 2010, and there have been over 100,000 small boat crossings — illegal crossings via the Channel — since Brexit in late 2020.

According to political academic Matt Goodwin, who predicted that Farage would run, even after the man himself ruled it out at the beginning of the campaign, Farage is looking to capitalize on the wave of apathy from millions who don’t feel represented by either the Tories or Labour. They’re angry about mass immigration, and they’re worried about the growing sectarianism, social disintegration, and Islamic extremism that have emerged since October 7, problems that mainstream parties are reluctant to talk about or address.