Iran renews nuclear work, but will it dash for a bomb?
ince the United States pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iranian nuclear deal, Tehran has taken care not to stretch its provocations too far. The leadership has announced several violations of the treaty, but most were in the spirit of “look what you’re making us do, Mr. Trump.” In short, the moves were designed to pressure the United States to back the deal once more.
But in the past few weeks, something has changed. In addition to enriching uranium at higher levels and increasing its uranium stockpile, Iran has restarted its underground Fordow nuclear facility. Moreover, the International Atomic Energy Agency recently found trace elements of uranium at an undeclared Iranian site in Tehran, one that Israel discovered and brought to the agency’s attention. All these moves point to the likelihood that Iran believes the nuclear deal is history, and is trying to produce a bomb before the economic sanctions cause irreparable damage to its economy.
Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, a senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C., said Iran’s actions recall its behavior pre-JCPOA.
“This is what happened last time they moved ahead with their nuclear program while sanctions were taking a real bite out of their accessible cash reserves,” he said. “The question is what else the United States can do to apply pressure to Iran’s economy, to sway them. Right now, it is very much a race between Iranian physics and American sanctions.”
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