Peace Plan: A Drama in Three Parts

Photo: Flash90

Among the Israeli political establishment, the consensus is that Donald Trump’s peace plan will not be realized. This assumption is based partly on the fact that the Palestinian Authority has not been in contact with the American administration for the past two years. Senior figures in the PA have warned that the plan is more likely to result in an upsurge of violence in Judea and Samaria than in any meaningful dialogue with Israel.

“The chances that the Palestinians will accept the plan are below zero,” said Shimrit Meir, an Arab affairs expert who writes widely in the Israeli press. “The Palestinians were never a party in this, and the plan was drawn up with that in mind. The Americans will say the plan is being presented now in light of circumstances. But given the fact that it represents a dialogue between Israel and America with no input from the PA, the Arabs, Israel’s left, or the Europeans, the minimum we could expect from the administration is that it should enjoy a consensus within Israel.”

That scenario, Meir said, is very similar to past peace plans in which American administrations negotiated with a very specific class in Israel — the leftist elite — and were then surprised when the Israeli electorate reacted differently from how the armchair strategists in Washington expected. Today, a similar dynamic is at work, though the other way around: the Trump administration is conducting a dialogue only with the Israeli right.

“The goal is to establish parameters different from those that were laid down by [President Bill] Clinton and [Secretary of State John] Kerry in previous peace initiatives,” Meir said. “If and when a real dialogue commences about peace [in the future], the starting point of the negotiations will be different from what it would otherwise have been — for example, the ’67 borders or a divided Jerusalem. From the Israeli point of view, I think it’s a good position to adopt, even as a merely tactical move.”