Within the next four to six months one of the following is likely to occur: Either Iran will have succeeded in immunizing its nuclear program from an Israeli attack or Israel will attack the Iranian nuclear program.
Insulation from Israeli attack would mean that Iran will almost certainly achieve nuclear weapons capability. The United States could wait longer to attack because of its superior munitions and ability to fly far more sorties from a closer distance than Israel can. The United States could also do far more to destroy the Revolutionary Guard infrastructure and make the toppling of the regime more likely.
But ordering such an attack is a far cry from sending Navy Seals to kill Osama bin Laden and there is no reason to believe that President Obama would ever do so. More likely the United States will hold out the promise to strike later if sanctions are not effective in order to forestall an Israeli attack and then pull the rug out from under Israel.
If Iran achieves nuclear weapons capability Israel will be under mortal threat. Even if Iran never deploys nuclear weapons Hizbullah and Hamas which have close to 100 000 missiles aimed at Israel will thereafter operate under an Iranian nuclear umbrella and Israel’s ability to defend itself against missile barrages will become far more circumscribed.
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