And Now What?        

Although it is unclear exactly where the tunnel will end, the light at the end of it may be quite dazzling. Two years after the devastating Simchas Torah events, it is likely that Hezbollah has been dismantled; Syria is no longer focused on the destruction of Israel; Iran has been dealt a blow powerful enough to cool its enthusiasm for fighting Israel through proxies or on its own, and there is a real possibility that Hamas will be removed from power. The signs point to a period of quiet respite for our war-weary nation.

But when we look back at our history, we cannot help but remain apprehensive. We’ve had spectacular victories before; the Six Day War was a triumph beyond anything imaginable. But it was followed, only a few years later, by the shock and calamity of the Yom Kippur War. Not only was that war devastating in absolute terms, it  also highlighted our terrible unpreparedness. Despite our vows of “never again,” we were indeed once again caught by surprise. And once again, we thought we had learned our lesson.

Nevertheless, we fell into the same trap of complacency on October 7. Although the investigations into what went wrong are not complete, it seems that we were once again grievously and unnecessarily caught off guard. We had incredibly sophisticated and multilayered monitoring systems in place, but we didn’t catch on to the meaning of what we were observing. And once we understood what was happening, our response was woefully inept and delayed.

Shocking as this failure was, it reflects human nature. Psychologists explain that time erodes a person’s sense of urgency. We cannot remain on “red alert” as a permanent state. Historians point out that all great empires rise and fall along the same pattern. They gain power as they focus on war and conquest. But once they feel that their power is consolidated, they turn their attention to pleasant, civilized pursuits. That’s when an up-and-coming power finds its opening to attack and conquer the old regime.