Biden’s Hopes for a Reset

Before the withdrawal, the president had managed to get his relief bill approved by Congress, and thanks to a quick and efficient vaccine rollout, America started returning to normal.

But the Afghanistan withdrawal, intended as a “promises kept” moment, was the first in a string of serious missteps. Although Biden was able to pass his infrastructure bill, his Build Back Better program and his voting reform bill have foundered on the continued opposition of Senators Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema.

Every crisis is an opportunity, as the cliché goes, and it could be that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is Biden’s chance to rehabilitate his international standing. The US has deployed thousands of troops to Eastern Europe, and Olaf Scholz, the new German chancellor, visited the White House this week.

Biden hopes simply to forestall a Russian invasion, but if he fails, he’ll have to impose sanctions that will be sufficiently painful for Russia to change its behavior, but not strong enough to provoke Putin to sabotage the world energy market in the middle of the cold European winter. This problem is keeping American allies awake at night.