Bloomberg, the One to Watch

All these are open questions. But even at this stage, a nightmare scenario is emerging in which none of the candidates will have enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the convention in Milwaukee this summer. Why? Because of the large number of candidates in the race and the absence of a clear front-runner, more than one candidate could make a strong case to be the nominee.

Biden, Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, and Amy Klobuchar are all moderate candidates who could win back votes from the center and the industrial Midwest. However, none of them is likely to beat Sanders alone.

Take for instance the Monmouth poll from February 11, which shows Sanders holding a 10% lead over the rest of the field, with 26% support. But have a look: Biden draws 16%, Bloomberg 11%, Buttigieg 13%, and Klobuchar 6%. In other words, the moderates in the race attract a combined 46% of the vote, but it’s split among four candidates.

The progressive camp is split as well. The Monmouth poll shows that Warren is supported by 13% of voters, a number that won’t get her anywhere — but she’s staying in the race. If she were to drop out and support Sanders, the progressives would have 39% support. In that scenario — and assuming that moderates and progressives would choose their representative candidates — the field would narrow.