Could Israel Run Out of Weapons?    

The UK’s move seems to be more symbolic than materially significant; some 95% of Israel’s arms imports come from the United States, Germany, and Italy. Nonetheless, the Israeli government is acutely aware that isolating itself from the West amid a yearlong conflict is far from a wise strategy.

How serious a precedent is the UK’s move for Israel? Could Israel face an arms shortage? Can it achieve self-sufficiency in weapons production? And how might the upcoming US elections affect Israel’s stock of military supplies?

We discussed these issues with two experts:

Ofer Shelah, former MK, director of the Israel National Security Policy research program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.

Dr. Yehoshua Kalinsky, Senior Fellow at the INSS, specializing in armaments, particularly in nuclear and laser technology.

Here are the takeaways from our discussion.

Could the UK’s decision to stop selling arms to Israel have a significant military impact?

No. The suspension affects only 30 out of more than 350 military products the UK exports to Israel, and the vast majority are aircraft parts that can be sourced from other international markets. In fact, the spare parts for the F-35 fighter jets have not been impacted by the decision. Ironically, the UK itself imports billions of dollars’ worth of Israeli arms, including missiles and drones, and conducts joint air force training exercises. So there’s a certain level of hypocrisy at play here.

Could this spark a trend against Israel, given that the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain have made similar moves since October 7?

All the countries that have chosen to suspend arms sales buy more Israeli products than they sell to Israel, so there is evidently a political motivation behind this. However, none of these nations would dare impose a total embargo, Israel can source the products it buys from them in other markets. And what they buy from Israel, they can obtain only from the Jewish state. No European country, including the UK or Spain, would ever fully embargo Israel — it would hurt them more than Israel.