Is more conflict in store for Israel’s northern border?
Fifteen years after the guns fell silent at the end of the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah decided last week to open fire with a rocket barrage at the Mount Dov area after Israel attacked from the air. Why did the terror chief choose to shatter the quiet, and is more conflict in store for Israel’s northern border?
“These are days of dilemma for Nasrallah,” a senior Northern Command officer told Mishpacha. “On the one hand, Lebanon’s internal situation is very disturbing and the economic collapse and polarization in Lebanese society have weakened his organization. On the other hand, a new government in Israel, led by Naftali Bennett openly attacked Lebanese soil, and is in conflict on a number of fronts with Nasrallah’s patron Iran.”
In this complex environment, Hezbollah have sent a three-fold message. To the Lebanese people, Nasrallah seeks to portray himself as defending Lebanon’s sovereignty, in contrast to the failed administration in Beirut. Firing at open areas near outposts on Mount Dov in response to the airstrikes in open areas in Lebanon sends a message to Israel that Hezbollah will match any Israeli escalation. And to his Shi’ite base, the barrage served as revenge for a number of Hezbollah operatives killed recently.
Israel’s working assumption is that in Lebanon’s decrepit state, war does not serve Hezbollah’s interest. The organization wants to maintain the current situation — preserving a weak government that allows it to do whatever it pleases. For Nasrallah, the incident is closed, but Hezbollah’s response signals that something has changed: the organization intends to hit back after every blow from Israel, even if that risks a conflict.
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