As the US dangles carrots, does Tehran believe the stick remains an option?
On the one hand, Rouhani projected openness to the West, expressing willingness to engage in dialogue, negotiating for a nuclear agreement that would benefit everyone, and trying to integrate Iran into the international community in a number of ways, which would include the lifting of sanctions but also greater involvement in international bodies and dialogue with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
On the other hand, Iran remained a repressive regime that not only deprived its own citizens of basic human rights, but relentlessly exported terror throughout the Middle East, as well as intervening in a number of arenas such as Syria, Iraq, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia. Under Rouhani, Iran’s tentacles extended into every corner of the Middle East. At the same time, they continued the production of ballistic missiles as well as the attempt to reach the nuclear threshold.
And if that was Rouhani’s Iran, under Raisi the administration is facing a regime with all the latter elements and none of the former. That is, a regime that will not only continue the terror and military buildup, including the nuclear project, but will exhibit zero interest in dialogue with the West.
The coming weeks will be critical, and it’s hard to understate the importance of what will happen within the next few days. The Americans are starting to lose patience. At a press conference in Kuwait last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that negotiations with Iran “can’t go on indefinitely.”
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