As Iran dashes for the bomb, Israel may be preparing to act
With Iran approaching the nuclear threshold of 90 percent uranium enrichment, and the US reportedly in talks for a new deal to stave off that capacity, is Israel — which has fought a decades-long shadow war against the Iranian nuclear quest — on the path to launching a military attack? That’s certainly a plausible scenario as to where we’re headed right now, because Israel has always acted when it felt a knife at its throat — and in this case, the foe has declared its desire and intent to destroy Israel.
The American officials I speak to don’t downplay the threat. They don’t dismiss the fact that Iran has cheated all along, but they also don’t see a new deal as being a major concession to Iran, which it is. It will be perceived as such by the other countries in the region, and they will see in another deal that America is again capitulating to Iranian demands. We don’t yet know what is in the “deal,” or how many more deals could be in the offing. Will it be a mini-JCPOA, a “less for less” deal, a massive payment for temporary gestures, etc.? It is anybody’s guess.
This could be such a dangerous trigger, because countries in the region will say, “Why should we be fighting Iran if the United States, and certainly Europe, negotiate with the Iranians despite their working with Russia to supply weapons to the war in Ukraine?” Despite its massive human rights violations, Iran ludicrously gets elected to positions in the UN, even the Disarmament Committee. And there will be cause for despair, knowing they have violated past agreements.
The shifting sands in the Middle East — including the new ties between the Saudis and China — are born of disappointment with US policy. They were particularly concerned by the lack of American response to Iranian attacks on shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, where large quantities of the world’s oils supply flow. In the Middle East, perceptions count — and the impression is that the US is withdrawing, or at least diminishing its presence and attention in the region.
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