Midterms Loom as Portent for 2024

According to all projections, Democrats are set to take a heavy blow in the midterms. Inflation, the culture wars, and general disappointment in the American economy have put Biden’s party on the defensive. According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats have 186 seats in the bag compared to 184 for the Republicans. The remaining 27 seats are toss-ups that either side could win, but in most of them, a Democratic incumbent is trying to hang on in an extremely close race. If Republicans can flip just a handful of these seats, they’ll control the House of Representatives and Kevin McCarthy will oust Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

From a historical perspective, this wouldn’t be an anomaly. The American political system is based on checks and balances, and the midterm elections are the voters’ opportunity to hobble the president by electing an oppositional Congress, guaranteeing that the two sides have to reach compromises and work together to advance reforms and pass legislation. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), since President Truman, the president’s party has lost an average 29 seats in midterm elections.

But regardless of historical trends, the Democrats seem to sense their vulnerability acutely. According to The Hill, the percentage of Democratic incumbents who have decided to retire (whether from fear of losing or because they understand they’ll likely be in the minority and won’t make an impact) is at a 30-year high.

Some 48 incumbent members of Congress are not running for reelection, of whom 30 are Democrats and 18 are Republicans. In fairness, some of the Democrats retiring are simply running for a different office — the Senate, governorship, and one is even running for mayor. Still, 22 Democrats are retiring from electoral politics altogether. One example is Ted Deutsch, who has decided not to run for another term and will instead serve as CEO of the American Jewish Committee (AJC).