Quitting Cold Turkey

Sinan Ciddi, nonresident fellow on Turkey at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and associate professor of national security studies at the Marine Corps University, said Erdogan’s decision was driven less by geopolitical concerns than more mundane ones.

“Erdogan has been playing with this issue for a while, mainly because it is a domestic political election issue for him,” Ciddi says. “He vilifies the West, saying they have supported terrorists seeking to undermine Turkey, such as the PKK — and by pointing to Finland and Sweden, he’s basically kept this issue alive in front of voters. On the other hand, there has been considerable pressure brought upon Turkey by the West, especially in NATO, saying, ‘You have to accept NATO enlargement,’ because these are valuable allies.

“So Erdogan is going halfway, saying, ‘Look, I’m not a spoiler, this is not just about politics, I’m approving Finland because Finland has taken into consideration our security concerns, [but] Sweden has a bit of way to go.’ But sometime after the May elections in Turkey, I expect Erdogan to ratify Sweden’s membership, most likely at the Vilnius summit of NATO in July.”

But, Ciddi cautions, that timetable will only hold true in the event that Erdogan wins — not a sure bet, as the Turkish opposition has lately found new life. And if Erdogan loses, the timetable will likely speed up.