So Much for the Red Wave  

For months we were told to expect a “red wave” — a Republican rout of Democrats in Congress — in the 2022 midterm elections. To understand why the actual result was more of a mild ripple, we need to look behind the numbers and trends. While some factors are obvious, others may be less intuitive. What are the main takeaways?

Gen Z Turned Out

One reason the red wave did not materialize was that Gen Z — the media’s nickname for the demographic cohort born after 1996 — voted. Young people are historically seen as less motivated to vote, and all the more so in midterm elections like these, when the president is not on the ballot. However, in the two last midterm election cycles, the Democrats were able to turn out Gen Z voters in high numbers, making them a significant voting bloc.

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University estimated that 27% of people between the ages 18 and 29 cast ballots in 2022, “making this the midterm election with the second-highest youth voter turnout in almost three decades,” and that “youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states.” The time with the highest turnout was 2018’s “blue wave.”

An NBC News exit poll found that 63 percent of Gen Z voted for Democrats, compared to only 35 percent who voted for Republicans. For Democrats, turning out young voters seems to be a top priority for future election cycles. If they succeed, it could shape the electoral map for years to come.

Abortions Trumped Inflation

The Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe v. Wade was a major issue in several Senate, gubernatorial, and House races. The conventional wisdom was that in a year with inflation at 40-year highs, the economy sliding into recession, and Wall Street in bear market territory, Roe would become a secondary issue. That was not the case.