TENSIONS IN DAMASCUS LEAVE ISRAEL AND THE US CONFOUNDED
So far Arab Spring has done little to increase Israelis’ optimism. According to the latest Pew survey a solid majority of Egyptians support abrogation of the peace treaty with Israel; the Egyptian-Israeli gas pipeline has already been sabotaged twice; and Egyptian efforts to interdict weapons smuggling into Gaza have been abandoned altogether.
Does the possibility of the Assad dynasty falling in Syria offer some compensation? Opinion is divided. Writing in National Review CIA veteran Michael Scheuer notes that since 1973 the Syrians have maintained quiet along the border with Israel. After killing 20000 or more civilians in the Muslim Brotherhood stronghold of Hama in 1982 Hafez al-Assad embarked on a determined effort to placate the Islamists building thousands of mosques and opening Sharia schools. As a consequence argues Scheuer in the event Bashar Assad’s regime falls Islamists are likely to play a major role in whatever follows.
Yet for the very same reason the ever astute Barry Rubin argues that Islamists have played no role in the current street demonstrations: The Assads father and son have pursued a nearly ideal Islamist foreign policy. Syria is after Iran the largest international supporter of terrorists including Hizbullah; it has allowed anti-American fighters to pour over the border into Iraq; and it hosts the world’s leading terrorist organizations. In addition Rubin places the hardcore support for Islamists in Syria at 15 percent of the population about half that of Egypt and with much less potential for growth due to Syria’s multiethnic society.
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