The Political Fallout of California’s Wildfire      

Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass has come under intense criticism. During the first 24 hours of the crisis, she was on a diplomatic mission, and since then she’s taken flak for fire department budget cuts and her seeming lack of crisis management skills. California governor Gavin Newsom hasn’t fared much better. He’s been criticized for his demeanor during this crisis and his overall management style. The scrutiny on both will only intensify, as discussions have now begun on recalling them under California’s unique system, which allows voters to remove any elected official from office before the end of his or her term.

Americans value strong leadership, especially during a crisis. They reward true leaders with election to higher office, and conversely they end the careers of those who don’t. During World War I, Herbert Hoover became the “food czar” and famously provided food to starving Europeans. Hoover’s skillful crisis management won him an increased profile, which helped him become our 31st president. Following 9/11, Rudy Giuliani’s polling and political stock rose so high that he was dubbed “America’s Mayor.”

Failure to lead during a crisis results not just in public scorn but typically in election defeats. Jimmy Carter is the most famous example of this. When he appeared helpless and ineffective during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, Americans voted him out in 1980.

This political reality dims Karen Bass’s reelection chances in 2026. But more importantly, it greatly diminishes Gavin Newsom’s ability to mount  a serious presidential campaign. Unless something changes, and quickly, Newsom will be mired in this crisis, and questions about his leadership will linger for the next few years. That is an impossible environment in which to launch a presidential campaign.