Every two years in the US, the country experiences the climatic event of congressional elections
Similar patterns hold sway in politics; every two years in the US, the country experiences the climatic event of congressional elections. Often, these elections see one political party sweeping into power and the other swept out. Pundits label such decisive elections “waves,” either red or blue, depending on which party wins.
Like a meteorologist, we can read patterns that are forming now to help predict who will win the critical 2026 midterms, which will determine whether Trump and the Republicans maintain majority power or the Democrats sweep them out.
The Democratic Party gains a few Senate and House seats but falls short of regaining a majority in either house. Republicans avert the historical trend of midterms hurting the majority party and claim victory.
Kamala Harris has announced she’s not running for California governor. This was a telling sign. What does Harris know about 2026 that we don’t? Does she think she’d have a harder time winning a Democratic primary as her party veers to the far left? Or did she take into account Richard Nixon’s experience in 1962? Nixon had dusted himself off after losing the 1960 presidential election to JFK and ran for California governor, and lost. That year the GOP fell short of dealing JFK heavy losses in the midterms, managing only a surprising “red splash.” Perhaps Harris views 2026 with trepidation about Democratic chances.
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