Bibi vs. Benny: The 2019 Election Guide

B
y Wednesday morning, we should know the results of Israel’s April 9 election. Here is a preview of what the political scene looks like in the campaign’s final days and where we could be headed in the following 45 days of coalition-building.

What about Bibi’s Legal Problems?

It’s mainly been a nonissue. Again, with the election as a referendum on Bibi, if you support him, you believe the charges are minor, and if you’re against him, he can do no right. However, after the election, Netanyahu is facing both a career milestone and a potential career-ender. If he leads the Likud to victory, by mid-July he will surpass David Ben-Gurion’s record for longevity as an Israeli prime minister. That same month is the tentative date for Netanyahu’s formal shimua, or hearing, with Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit. It will be the last chance for Netanyahu and his attorneys to talk Mandelblit out of indicting Bibi on bribery and breach-of-trust charges. If the Likud should fare poorly next week, no one will need Mandelblit to give Bibi the boot. Voices will be heard inside the Likud calling for Netanyahu’s scalp and to find their own fresh new face to replace him as party leader.

Is Benny Gantz for Real?

The 2019 election is a single-issue campaign: a referendum on Binyamin Netanyahu. The only viable anti-Bibi alternative is Benny Gantz and his Blue and White party. Gantz has credentials. A former IDF chief of staff, he spent 36 years in the military, fighting in or leading ten battles. His one post-IDF venture into business failed and drew criticism from the state comptroller for alleged violations of standard bidding practices. Yet Israelis revere the IDF as an institution and the IDF’s top spot is a proven stepping stone to the Prime Minister’s Office (see Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak). Gantz is telegenic and while he has stumbled in some media interviews, he has also received favorable reviews, and never seems to have two bad interviews in a row, which shows some resilience and that he learns from his mistakes.

Can Bibi Hold Gantz Off?

Ever since the 1996 election, when Israelis went to sleep with exit polls telling them that Shimon Peres defeated Binyamin Netanyahu only to wake up in the morning to discover that Netanyahu won, the media consistently writes Netanyahu off. Pollsters and pundits had Bibi going down to defeat in 2015 as well. In 2009, the polls showing Kadima’s Tzipi Livni defeating Bibi were accurate — however, Livni couldn’t find enough like-minded partners to form a coalition, so Netanyahu ended up as prime minister. Late in this year’s race, the momentum seems to be swinging Netanyahu’s way, with President Trump boosting Netanyahu’s prestige by granting recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro paying an important state visit a week before the vote.