Is Trump Toast?

One hundred fifty days before the 2020 elections, America appears more divided than ever. “Rage” is the byword and “justice” is the demand.

In the middle of the raging storm sits President Donald Trump, appearing more vulnerable than ever. In March, Trump was within striking distance of presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Today, with protests in all 50 states, national polling shows him trailing by double digits. Add to that a persistent pandemic and near wall-to-wall negative media coverage and Trump’s chances for reelection seem more remote than realistic.

However, Trump, being Trump, has not backed down from the fight. Rather than apologize and appease protesters, the president has made the political decision to employ the “law and order” strategy to propel him to reelection.

“Some of the looting and criminal behavior that has occurred with the protests has raised the salience of law and order and support for the police, which are issues that benefited Trump in 2016,” said Robert Shapiro, a professor of international and public affairs in the political science department at Columbia University. “That may be enough to keep the election close and allow him to win the electoral vote. But a bad economy and political disruption in general is very bad for incumbent presidents. The law-and-order strategy works best against incumbents. But Trump is the incumbent here.”