Here is my analysis and grades for six major components of the plan
If the Ehuds (Barak and Olmert) had their way, Israel would have retained a mere 4% of Judea and Samaria and some 50 out of 150 recognized Jewish communities would have been uprooted or left abandoned within a hostile Palestinian state. Trump’s plan does not forcibly displace any Jews (or Arabs) but does relegate some 15 small Jewish communities to Palestine, under IDF protection. The plan grants US legitimacy to all Jewish settlements in Judea and Samaria — including those 15 — and confers to Israel control of 30% of that land, instead of 4%. These are big pluses, considering how the international community has demonized the settlement movement, but any joy must be tempered by the fact that Israel currently exercises full military and civilian control of 70% of the West Bank (known as Area C). Going from 70% to 30% constitutes a huge reduction, and for many Jews, formally ceding large swaths of our Biblical homeland is anathema.
Grade: B-
In prior peace talks, the IDF was to withdraw the bulk of its forces from the Jordan River Valley, maintaining a limited “security presence” for a ten-year transitional period. That was based on the assumption that all the security risks from a Palestinian state would wondrously vanish after a decade. Under the Trump plan, the Jordan River Valley becomes sovereign Israeli territory, serving as a bulwark against aggressors from the east, and keeping Israel poised to safeguard Jordan from falling into radicals’ hands. The rest of the new map looks scary considering the proximity of the proposed Palestinian state to Ben-Gurion Airport and Israel’s main north-south route, Highway 6. The east side of Highway 6 from the airport and north is home to the 300,000 Israeli-Arab citizens of the “Triangle Communities.” Since release of the Trump plan, they have made it abundantly clear they have zero interest in the suggestion that they be redistricted into Palestine, a move that would strip them of their Israeli citizenship (and benefits).
Grade: B
In the darkest days of Camp David in 2000, Ehud Barak proposed his own deal of the century to Yasser Arafat — giving away the Jewish People’s most precious tract of land — the Temple Mount — and placing Jerusalem’s Old City under international control. Trump took this off the negotiating table, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital and relocating the US embassy. The Trump plan does envision a future Palestinian capital, but in a neighborhood of eastern Jerusalem where few Jews venture. In recent years, leading right-wing politicians and scholars from like-minded think tanks have recognized there are more advantages than disadvantages in redrawing Jerusalem’s borders so Arab neighborhoods in northern and eastern Jerusalem form their own municipality and govern themselves.
Grade: A-
The most worrisome carryover from Oslo is a Gaza–West Bank high-speed transportation link slicing through 40 miles of Israeli territory. Media reports that this travel corridor will be a benign tunnel, out of sight and out of mind, are based on the use of the word “tunnel” in the map, but the text of the Trump plan specifies only the goal, not the means, clearly saying the crossing will be “over or under the State of Israel’s sovereign territory.”
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