THE CURRENT → THE ROSE REPORT Issue 1009 · May 1, 2024

A Simmering Summer of Disruption

Five major storylines could carry the day in the six months that remain before the November5 election

A Simmering Summer of Disruption
1. Escalation in the Middle East

There is nothing like a war involving Israel to stir voter’s emotions.

While conventional wisdom says foreign policy is not a high priority for American voters, a recent Associated Press–National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago showed that foreign policy had become voters’ number-two concern for 2024, after the economy. Some of this concern can be laid at the doorstep of the Russia-Ukraine war and Chinese belligerence, but it also became a pocketbook issue when the Biden administration proposed spending $100 billion in taxpayer funds on Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan.

With the risk of war spreading, which of the two major candidates would help Americans sleep better at night? A November 2023 CBS/YouGov poll showed that 47% of the respondents thought Trump’s policies “would increase peace and stability” while just 31% said the same about Biden.

I’ve critiqued Trump in this column for his oft-repeated statements that “none of this would have happened if I were president.” Still, as is often the case, there is a method to his madness, and according to this poll, his message is sinking in and his credibility is rising.

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