Bennett Coming for the Chareidim

1.Naftali Bennett, the former prime minister currently riding high in public opinion polls, has a problem. It’s Bennett’s first time running apart from the right-wing bloc. And in past elections, he’s dramatically underperformed the polls, typically delivering votes about a third of his peak numbers. His core base consisted of about four seats — right around the electoral threshold.

But that was before he deserted the right-wing bloc. This time, Bennett doesn’t have much of a base at all.

The three key questions asked in election surveys are: Whom have you voted for in the past? Whom do you intend to vote for this time? And how sure are you of your vote? Netanyahu’s Likud has 20 seats’ worth of voters who won’t change their mind, no matter what happens. The same holds true of  parties such as Shas and UTJ, whose support is largely fixed.

Bennett’s support, while broad, is also shallow. On a good day, he soars to well over 20 seats, overtaking Netanyahu. But when you filter out those who aren’t confident in their vote, you’re left with a small core of voters who might not get him over the electoral threshold.