Is America's softened tone a sign that Bibi has folded?
One such clue comes from the Biden administration’s change in tone. After the IDF incorporated many US concerns about the invasion into its battle plans, the US dropped its vociferous objections and now at least grudgingly admits that the IDF evacuation of Gaza civilians has gone better than expected and that IDF attacks haven’t crossed any red lines that would cause the administration to stop rearming Israel.
Two weeks into the invasion, Israel was in control of more than 70 percent of Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, which is Hamas’s major smuggling route for weapons, money, and other contraband that supports its black-market economy.
If the US can hold its tongue while Israel expands its reach so it can locate and eradicate an estimated 50 tunnels, and perhaps capture or eliminate Hamas’s leaders — and, best of all, find and free the remaining hostages — Israel could conceivably wrap up this phase of the operation in two to four months, according to estimates from current and former top IDF officials, depending on the level of resistance Hamas can muster.
Another sign that the US will give Israel the time it needs comes from an apparent slowdown in the timetable for negotiations with Saudi Arabia on a three-way pact that would include Saudi recognition of Israel. Shortly after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia and Israel, reports circulated that the deal was almost final. A couple of days later, administration officials were more cautious, saying it was “weeks away.”
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