Nearly a quarter-century after Khomeini toppled the Shah to become a latter-day Haman, what are the next steps in the Israeli-Iranian confrontation?
Key to understanding the Iranian threat is the realization that the country is no tinpot Middle Eastern dictatorship, but a state able to call on advanced capabilities. In a region filled with brutal but bumbling regimes that Israel has bested multiple times on the battlefield, Iran stands out as a unique threat. Even after decades of Western sanctions, Tehran has shown a startling ability to innovate, building a nuclear and ballistic missile program from scratch. Domestically produced drones and cruise missiles give Tehran a long-range fist.
In the cyber domain, Iran punches above its weight. Iranian self-sufficiency contrasts with the country’s Gulf neighbors, who have little domestic capabilities and must use their petrodollars to buy American weapons. These technological achievements point to Tehran being one of the most formidable foes that Israel has faced.
In the decades-long covert struggle between Israel and Iran, both sides have seen successes and failures. On Israel’s side, the 2018 heist of Iran’s nuclear archives was a stunning coup. But the struggle has often led to Diaspora Jews being targeted. A notable occasion was the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people. More recently, in 2013, Israeli tourists were killed in Burgas, Bulgaria, in an operation pinned on Hezbollah and Iran.
With Israel once again declaring that a military option is on the table, Britain’s Jewish community is reportedly a target. As Security Minister Tom Tugendhat told Parliament last week, Iran is using criminal gangs to compile a list of prominent British Jews to be targeted in the event of an Israeli strike. It’s a sign of a wider Iranian strategy that views Jewish communities worldwide as Israel’s soft underbelly.
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