Every year, prominent public figures are prepared to put their credibility on the line by forecasting the future
Prediction is a risky business, yet every year, prominent public figures are prepared to put their credibility on the line by forecasting the future. As British prime minister Harold Macmillan said, the most difficult thing about his job was events.
Who could have predicted the wild turns the US election took, the collapse of Europe’s two strongest governments in France and Germany, or the rapid fall of the half-century-old Assad regime in Syria? Still, as 2024 began a year ago, plenty of vaunted institutions and commentators recorded for posterity their predictions for a truly memorable 12 months. We look back at some of them to see how they actually turned out.
Biden didn’t even run, dropping out of the race in July after a disastrous debate that exposed his cognitive decline. Kamala Harris was coronated as the nominee, but she was soundly trounced by a resurgent Trump, who won the Electoral College, popular vote, and both houses of Congress.
The commentariat indulged in wishful thinking when it came to the outcome of the US election, right up until the results came in — though to be fair, Biden and the Democrats started out 2024 in a relatively strong position. Few people could have foreseen the jaw-dropping debate that forced Biden to exit and be replaced with the underwhelming, over-hyped Harris.
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