It’s the Geopolitics, Stupid!

Is an invasion imminent or not? For weeks now, Western leaders have been trying to parse Putin’s intentions as Russian forces on Ukraine’s borders swell daily.

But even as the world waits, the standoff has highlighted the return of geopolitical truths about power and the old continent that the postwar settlement obscured.

19th Century

“You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th-century fashion by invading another country,” scolded then-secretary of state John Kerry (now Biden’s “climate czar”) when Putin last invaded Ukraine.

It was a telling comment, highlighting the gulf between the Obama administration’s naivete, and the Russian leader’s acute understanding that fielding tanks is far more effective than deploying rhetoric.