My “Fearless Forecast” for 2023

If 2022 was a tumultuous year geopolitically, chances are we haven’t seen the end of it yet. Last year’s major stories, including Russian aggression against Ukraine, China-Taiwan tensions, American obsession over Israel’s new government, dissension within the Republican Party, and the economic perils posed by inflation and high interest rates, are already spilling over into the new calendar year. Here’s how I see these stories playing out in 2023.

1

GOP’s Identity Crisis

Republicans are on the cusp of a major decision. Is Donald Trump still their standard-bearer, or can the party faithful rally behind a new, Ronald Reagan style leader who can restore a semblance of bipartisanship to a polarized nation? We may not know the answer until deep into the 2024 primary campaign.

Until then, Republicans will remain the underdogs running against an incumbent Democrat, who is likable if not sometimes laughable, and whose job approval ratings are rising. The Republicans are wracked by dissension, as proven by their midterm election failures and the tempestuous battle for House Speaker. They’re not faring much better in the Senate, with growing question marks over the minority leadership of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who turns 81 next month.

Republicans are a party in flux, with unruly competing factions torn between their recent past, distant past, and an uncertain future.

2

Bibi and Biden’s First Big Fight

The US and Israel seem to have closed ranks around Iran. Military and strategic cooperation will carry on as it has for decades. We all know the minefields in the relations. Settlement in Judea and Samaria, or anything else that the US deems a threat to the unattainable two-state solution. Alienation between liberal Jewish groups and Israel’s new religiously oriented government is already tangible.