Off to the Races

Historically, the incumbent president’s party almost always loses ground in midterm elections. Voter disillusionment that results from comparing campaign promises with results almost always swings support to the other party. This happened in the 2018 midterm election during Trump’s term, when Democrats retook control of the House of Representatives, and the same thing happened in 2010 during Obama’s first term —Democrats lost a whopping 63 House seats .

For Biden and the Democrats, the past year was a roller coaster. A year ago today, Democrats were coasting. Biden had just passed an impressive big infrastructure package, the stock market hit record highs, and the pandemic was on the wane.

But between November 2021 and March 2022 everything turned around at dizzying speed. The stock market bubble burst. Inflation soared. The war in Ukraine sent energy prices skyrocketing. Gas was more expensive; food was more expensive; interest rates soared. Everything was a mess.

Recent months brought stabilization, relatively speaking. Energy prices in the US leveled off. Inflation plateaued; the job market remained stable. And at the same time, the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling persuaded many swing voters to lean toward Biden and the Democrats. This is especially true for suburban woman who oppose the court’s ruling. Historically, turnout in this demographic tends to be high, and they could well decide election outcomes.