Surprise boils down to patience versus arrogance
Once hostilities are underway, they follow a basic reactionary pattern: Each side throws itself into battle until it has exhausted either resources or targets.
Israeli military doctrine has been firmly established since the early moments of the Six Day War, when waves of French-made Mirage aircraft destroyed nearly the entire Egyptian air force as pilots sat in the chow hall. The lesson: The fortunes of war, al pi derech hateva, flip on the success of the opening salvo.
And that success depends on the element of surprise. We’ve seen this in the Hezbollah pager operation, the 12-Day War, Midnight Hammer, and most recently on Shabbos Zachor.
The converse lesson —never to be caught by surprise — is not as easily learned. Israel’s most devastating losses, in 1973 and 2023, came when it let its guard down.
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