Post-Iran

Will Iran undergo a regime change, and if so, what form might it take?

Will Israel’s remaining adversaries learn a lesson from Iran’s experience and recalibrate in response to the overwhelming display of US-Israeli military dominance?

Let’s start with regime change, which is quite common. Two academic studies have identified at least 260 regime changes in well over half of the world’s countries since World War II. Martin Paldam, a professor of economics at Denmark’s Aarhus University, produced one of these studies, noting that a “triggering event” is a prerequisite for regime change.

Israel and the US pulled that trigger.

However, we must clearly distinguish between a “leadership change,” which occurs when the leader is removed while the governing system remains intact, and a “regime change,” in which the entire political order collapses or undergoes fundamental restructuring.