Democratic wins cast doubt on GOP midterm
But just a month and a half later, it feels like Democrats are in a very different place. Inflation is down to 6.7 percent, according to the latest figures, a gallon of gas is priced at $3.70 in Washington, D.C., and the president’s approval rating — while still very low — has stabilized at 42 percent.
If we go back two months, the FiveThirtyEight model projected a 56 percent chance of Republicans taking over the Senate, with an average result of 51 seats. Today, the same model gives Democrats a 65 percent chance of holding on to the Senate.
The Democrats are still projected to lose their majority in the House — and this is a big deal. Without controlling both houses of Congress, Biden will struggle to pass legislation, and almost every reform will get stuck. But here, too, the race is tightening. Two months ago, the model gave Republicans an 88 percent chance of retaking the House, compared to “just” 78 percent now. So Republicans are still heavily favored, but it’s becoming hard to ignore the trend, especially if one includes gubernatorial races, in which Democrats are favored to flip three states currently led by Republicans: Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona.
But why is this happening, and could Republicans still turn things around?
Create a free account to keep reading.
