The odds on Bibi keeping his seat, Gideon Saar snatching it from him, and why Israel’s fourth election in the past two years is a harbinger for a fifth election
In his own words, Eyal Arad has made good money advising prime ministers from Binyamin Netanyahu to Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert. Arad, considered Israel’s savviest political strategist, shared his political counsel for free with the foreign media last week in Jerusalem, where he crunched the odds on Bibi keeping his seat, Gideon Saar snatching it from him, and why Israel’s fourth election in the past two years is a harbinger for a fifth election.
Long gone are the days when the victorious party — be it Labor or Likud, centered around big-name candidates like Netanyahu and Begin, or Ben-Gurion and Rabin — could win 40 to 50 Knesset seats and easily form a coalition with two or three eager smaller parties. Gideon Saar’s split from the Likud means there are now four parties vying for the right-wing vote — Likud, Saar’s New Hope, Naftali Bennett’s Yamina, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu.
The left and center left are also hopelessly split between the dying embers of Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party; Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid; Ofer Shelach, who just split from Lapid; and Meretz, who always cobbles together just enough votes to avoid political extinction.
“What we are going to see in this campaign is less fighting between the two blocs — the right and the left — and more infighting within the blocs,” Erad says.
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