The Empty Impeachment Investigation

The decision to begin an inquiry came in a matter of days. In contrast, the Russiagate investigation that Democrats had hoped might lead to impeachment dragged on for two years. Despite periodic leaks about Trump’s potential crimes, Pelosi held firm that she would only act once the final report was published. She was the voice of reason and levelheadedness in a party where the tone is too often set by a vocal progressive wing.

Pelosi knew that opening half-baked impeachment proceedings could rebound against the Democrats. The president would keep his job and the Republicans would rally in 2020 with the cry that the Democrats were trying to steal the presidency.

But the very principles that Pelosi held by during Russiagate were abandoned abruptly with Ukrainegate. As of the writing of these lines, many details of the Ukraine affair have yet to be exposed. Right now, we only know that the president may have used his position for political gain. There’s plenty of smoke but little fire.

The impeachment process has two stages. If the House of Representatives votes by a simple majority to impeach, the Senate holds a trial of the president and then votes on whether to remove him from office. A two-thirds majority is required. The Republicans currently command a 51-49 majority in the Senate. The odds that 18 Republicans will vote to impeach President Trump are about as good as President Trump supporting Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez in her next election.