Not for over a century in British politics has the Conservative-Labour duopoly been challenged like this
Labour, originally jubilant at Reform’s resurgence, which was the decisive factor in their victory, is increasingly alarmed at the inroads Farage is making, this time at their expense. Ahead of local elections in May 2025, and parliamentary elections in devolved nations in 2026, Reform is predicted to make big gains. The party membership has recently passed the 100,000 mark, they’ve bagged some high-profile Conservative defections, and their momentum seems unstoppable. We take a look at their current position and ask if they can really redraw a century-old political map.
Not for over a century in British politics has the Conservative-Labour duopoly been challenged like this. The first-past-the-post electoral system is ruthless at squeezing out fringe parties, but the populist right has built up a sufficient following in concentrated areas to make them a credible threat to Labour. In 89 Labour-won seats, Reform is in second place. Nationally, Reform polls at 20% on average, trailing the two dominant parties by only single digits.
Labour’s start in government has seen their poll lead evaporate and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s approval ratings fall off a cliff. Swept into government by an electorate desperate to boot out the Conservatives, they’re now perceived to be a resounding disappointment, and a quickly disillusioned public is looking elsewhere. The much-diminished, still-soul-searching Conservatives have yet to offer a coherent alternative to Labour, leaving the field open for a challenger.
Labour has dominated the voting in Wales since 1999, but years of domestic incompetence are tempting voters to Reform. The poorest nation in the UK has seen declining public service and educational standards, despite record spending.
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