Trump Cards: Jewish Landscaping    

For as long as I’ve been involved in politics, two narratives have held sway:

1. Jewish voters are overwhelmingly and reliably Democratic; and
2. Jewish voter turnout is an outlier and not a constant.

November 5 upended both political storylines. The story of the Jewish vote in 2024 has attracted attention from the highest levels of the Republican Party, and moving forward, Donald Trump will include it as a factor in his political calculus. Here’s what it means for the future of American politics.

Are Jewish voters Democratic?

For decades, exit polls have consistently shown the Jewish vote for president at about 70%-plus for the Democratic candidate. This year, we did a robust nonpartisan survey on and after Election Day with the Honan Strategy Group. We specifically polled areas that were competitive in Pennsylvania and the swing US House races in New York state. What we found was eye-opening.

The Jewish vote was very evenly split between the two parties, and Kamala Harris did not get over 50% of the vote in either state, despite allegedly winning this voting segment overwhelmingly on a national basis.