THE CURRENT → HALLS OF POWER Issue 1025 · August 21, 2024

Unraveling Trump’s Campaign Crisis

I’m a political veteran, and I have never seen a month like the Trump campaign just went through

Unraveling Trump’s Campaign Crisis


Photo: AP Images

“It’s bad. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.”

This remark stood out. I spoke with several Republican strategists, donors, and activists this week. I had to go to the source. I’m a political veteran, and I have never seen a month like the Trump campaign just went through.

I was bewildered by the change in forecast. Conventional wisdom of a red wave had been completely abated, and now a blue wave was anticipated. Readers have been asking me nonstop about it, and I wanted answers to their questions. Why had the campaign lost momentum? Would Trump recover? What would it portend for the Republicans’ November chances?

Here’s what I learned.

Free Fall

A month ago, a CBS News poll had Trump ahead of Biden by five points. This reflected the public’s concerns about Biden’s age and the rosy view of Trump after the assassination attempt. But an Emerson College poll last week had Harris leading Trump by four points. How can this be explained?

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