Waves of Influence    

That’s the narrative that’s being spun out of Michigan after returns in that state’s presidential primary were tallied. The vote for “Uncommitted” is a protest by Muslim advocates who urged their community not to vote for Biden due to his pro-Israel positions. In what has thus far been a predictable campaign, this protest vote can’t be ignored.

According to Reuters, Michigan has over 300,000 Arab-American and Muslim voters. This is a sizable portion of the electorate in a swing state that Biden won in 2020 by only 2.8%. Organizers of this protest vote set a goal of 10% voting “uncommitted” to convey their displeasure to the White House. The president still won the primary with 81% of the vote; but protest organizers surpassed their 10% goal, garnering over 100,000 votes, some 13% voting “uncommitted.” Organizers declared victory and predicted that it would be hard for Biden to win Michigan in November without their support.

Is that true? Politico rightly pointed out that “uncommitted” has done reasonably well in the last three Michigan presidential primaries, with 21,000 uncommitted votes in 2012 against President Obama. But according to unofficial results in Dearborn, home to one of the country’s largest Muslim populations, 56% voted for “uncommitted” to 40% for President Biden. There is clearly unhappiness in this voting population. Is it enough to impact 2024?

Democrats in every circle I’ve spoken to offer mixed responses. Some are concerned, based on the reality that there is no room for error in this campaign, and any group that is unhappy now could stage the ultimate protest vote by simply not showing up in what is expected to be a close election in November. Others are blasé, since Trump remains a lightning rod for controversy in that community for his “Muslim ban,” perceived in many Muslim communities, especially in Michigan, as targeting their friends and relatives.