Insights from Dr. Yoel Guzansky, whose new book, Fraternal Enemies: Israel and the Gulf Monarchies, couldn’t possibly be timelier
Now that the United Arab Emirates has agreed to upgrade diplomatic relations with Israel, expectations have reached fever pitch that other Arab countries, especially Bahrain, Oman, Morocco, and perhaps Saudi Arabia, are next in line. Even if they are, international diplomacy is a trek, not a 100-yard dash.
“We’re only at the beginning of a process,” says Dr. Yoel Guzansky, former coordinator of the Iran and Gulf States bureau at Israel’s National Security Council under three different prime ministers, including Binyamin Netanyahu. “It might take a few years to complete, if at all. There will be many bumps along the road.”
Guzansky suggests paying attention to the different tunes each party is singing. “Israelis are speaking about a diplomatic achievement and a historic peace agreement. The UAE used the term ‘bilateral relations.’ I didn’t see the word peace there,” said Guzansky. “The narrative the UAE is now forging is that this was a necessary act to stop the annexation. I’m not sure the Palestinians will buy it, but the UAE is saying we helped keep the two-state solution alive.”
The fact that Israel readily agreed to “suspend” the application of sovereignty over Jewish towns in Judea and Samaria and in the Jordan River Valley as a quid pro quo for the UAE deal contradicts the Likud’s spin that this is peace for peace. First, as Guzansky pointed out, the UAE isn’t buying into the term.
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