For Bibi and Shaked, it's success or curtains
One doesn’t need an IQ of 150 to know that if the Likud falls short of the numbers required to form a stable coalition after the November 1 election, the party will serve Binyamin Netanyahu his walking papers, unless he is wise enough to quit first. To avoid that scenario, the Likud, and its three most like-minded partners — Shas, UTJ, and the Religious Zionists — must win 61 seats. That way, even if they reach out to build a broader coalition, it will be at their discretion, and they won’t fall prey to a small party that deems itself to be the kingmaker.
In the current Knesset, these four parties control just 52 seats. The most optimistic polls show this bloc winning 59 or 60 seats in November. That’s not enough, and that’s been the problem in the last four elections. Where can the extra seats come from?
Once Naftali Bennett erased his red lines and cast his lot with Meretz and the Arabs, he left his longstanding political ally — Ayelet Shaked — out to dry. Bennett is going into self-imposed retirement, at least for the upcoming election, and after several defections, Bennett’s Yamina party has been gutted.
It takes at least 140,000 votes to win the 3.25% to cross the threshold and enter the Knesset with a minimum of four seats. Does Ayelet Shaked have enough star power to rebuild the party by November? Shaked has demonstrated talent and tenacity in heading both the justice and interior ministries, but she has never led a political party. Considering Yamina MKs have been deserting the party’s sinking ship for months now, she will have to shuffle the decks to field a new — and loyal — slate of candidates for a discredited party.
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