A Few Minutes with… Yaakov Amidror  

Preparing for War

Israel’s former national security advisor, Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror, took to the airwaves last week to warn that the country’s confrontation with Iran is reaching a critical stage, and the stability that has reigned on the northern border with Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon may soon erupt. And US support in a wider conflict is not a given.

“We need to prepare for war,” he warned last Thursday on Israel’s Radio 103 FM. “We may reach a point where we have to attack Iran without US aid.”

Amidror sees two factors feeding the risk of all-out war: an increasingly emboldened Iran, which is driving the sudden resurgence in Hezbollah’s belligerence; and an increasingly disengaged, distracted United States, which makes its ally Israel more vulnerable. “Iran is more confident in itself. It has reached several agreements with Arab countries. The world is starting to look different.

“Meanwhile, this is not the same America we have known, in terms of its readiness, and the Iranians see that. The US has far more complex problems than the Middle East. The world looks at Israel differently.”

Amidror sat with Mishpacha for an in-depth discussion of Israel’s heightened security challenges.

We haven’t seen war in Israel’s north since the 2006 Second Lebanon War. But temperatures on the border have risen recently. Does this mean another war is becoming more likely?

The answer is a bit complicated. The world has changed since the last Israeli operation in Lebanon 17 years ago, as has the Middle East, with the United States perceived as increasingly reluctant to exert force or intervene in the region at all. It’s not that they lack the ability to do so, just the will.

In addition, Iran has just signed a series of peace deals with Arab nations, and is therefore feeling more confident. Iran is a large, powerful country with immense potential, and today no one can stop her from advancing in the nuclear arena.

Under these circumstances, I think one of the key strategic priorities of Israeli decision makers is to push off the conflict for as long as possible, something we’ve in fact seen. At the same time, we have to be aware that the danger of war exists and there’s no ignoring it. Especially since the capabilities of our enemies to the north haven’t deteriorated, as was once thought, but the exact opposite. We have to take into account in the most sober way that the time will come when we have to face them, on our initiative or theirs, or as the result of an escalation that neither side planned and both sides will regret.

I’ll remind you that neither side really wanted the Second Lebanon War either, and Nasrallah himself later stated that had he known how the conflict would turn out, he would never have started it. A misperception occurred then, too, as one side was sure that the enemy would react in a certain way, but the response turned out to be ten times as forceful.