Most polls show Republican primary voters prioritize candidates who share their views (read: Donald Trump) over electability
At this stage in the 2020 cycle, 65% of Democrats preferred the candidate best placed to beat Trump, to 29% who prized ideological alignment. Almost conversely, 63% of Republicans told YouGov last month they preferred ideological alignment over less than 30% who preferred electability. If these polls accurately reflect voting intentions, it’s hard to see how the GOP regains the White House in 2024.
But candidates’ shifting fortunes can shift the polls too. Democrats’ preference for electability peaked in March 2020, when Biden, whose prime attribute was his ability to beat Trump, won Super Tuesday. If DeSantis’s fortunes improve, his electability may suddenly become more important for Republicans.
New York City mayor Eric Adams may be dealing with domestic problems in the Big Apple, seemingly far removed from Washington, but the outspoken Democrat’s stances on crime and immigration could affect his party’s chances of regaining the House in 2024.
Progressive Dems say his mayoral campaign on law-and-order issues cost the party four congressional seats in the New York suburbs that tipped the House to Republican control in 2022. The occupant of Gracie Mansion has far more influence than other city mayors, and Adams’s recent program to bus Latin American asylum seekers to hotels across New York effectively pushed White House immigration policy right into voters’ faces.
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