The 2016 Brexit vote was the canary in the coal mine of anti-immigration anger, but it was Trump’s rhetoric and policies that really put immigration liberals on notice. With a more violent and autocratic Middle East, and Latin America ravaged by gang wars, the borders of Europe and the US have been overrun. Western leaders previously sheltered behind postwar humanitarian treaties, but voters have had enough and care little for the 1949 Geneva Convention in 2024.
In Germany, Italy, and Poland, anti-immigration policies are being implemented. France’s Emmanuel Macron is clashing with the border hawks in his new government. In Hungary, the Netherlands, and Austria, the populist right is in power. With the border one of the Democrats’ key weaknesses, European leaders know there’s little room for error on this emotive issue.
It was a very convenient system, until Trump came along and started asking awkward questions. For decades, European leaders pinched pennies on defense, and the US picked up the tab. The former businessman and dealmaker was outraged at this perceived unfairness, and threatened to withdraw from the alliance if Europeans failed to stump up the cash. Fast-forward a few years, and NATO members have done just that; defense spending has risen from 1.47% percent in 2014 to the 2 percent target in 2024.
NATO’s support for Ukraine is another potential weak spot, where US support is not guaranteed, and NATO officials have told CNN they’re preparing for the US to take a lesser role in the alliance under a Trump presidency.
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