Why pollsters are split about Bibi's political fate
In October 2022, a week before the last elections, I visited Metzudat Zeev and saw Netanyahu pacing the Likud headquarters like a lion in his cage. With two cigar butts in the ashtray, Bibi consumed the polls brought to his desk like fresh-baked rolls.
Among Israeli politicians, Netanyahu is an unrivaled campaigner, bobbing and weaving with the latest poll numbers. He won his first improbable victory in 1996 after bringing on the famed American political advisor Arthur Finklestein, who commissioned the in-depth polls that first brought to light the dichotomy between Jews and Israelis. Netanyahu has exploited that divide ever since.
A week before the last elections, after a string of inconclusive votes that ultimately ushered in the “change government,” Netanyahu was especially nervous. “It’s the trend that matters,” he said, pinpointing the key datum — momentum. If the trend line favors you in the week before election day, chances are good that you’ll close the gap.
That said, the polling industry’s credibility has taken a hit in recent years. On the one hand, polls conducted for center-left news outlets have shown dramatic leads for the opposition bloc, with one last week putting the opposition at an incomprehensible 70 seats. On the other hand, polls commissioned by right-wing outlets — Channel 14, and recently i24 — show the right-wing bloc holding steady at around 60 seats.
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