Game of Brinksmanship

Iran made no apologies when it seized the UK-flagged Stena Impero on Friday, saying it was a retaliatory measure for a July 4 seizure by British forces of a tanker carrying Iranian oil to Syria, a breach of European Union sanctions. The Iranian action took place almost exactly one month after it shot down a US Navy drone, and one day after the United States destroyed an Iranian drone approaching the USS Boxer near the Strait of Hormuz.

What Does Iran Want?

Iran’s actions belie its desperate state. The maximum pressure campaign of the Trump administration seems to be working. Iran is threatening to disrupt the global flow of oil through the Strait — the narrow choke point that is the passageway for one-sixth of the world’s oil and one-third of its liquified natural gas — if it does not receive sanctions relief. At the same time, the United States announced that it will deploy 500 soldiers to its ally Saudi Arabia, in addition to the 2,000 additional troops already in the region.

What does Iran hope to achieve? According to Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), Tehran wishes to project an image of strength, even in its weakened state. “They are using force in order to intimidate the Americans and the West from continuing the pressure against [them],” he said in a telephone interview. “And they are telling the world, listen, oil is important for you and we can give you a lot of trouble,” unless economic sanctions are eased and the Iranian economy has room to breathe.

More than that, says Inbar, the author of five books and a noted expert on Israeli policy and strategy, the Iranians want to buy time. Their ultimate goal is to build a nuclear weapon. If the economy collapses or the regime is threatened by protests, that goal is delayed. Therefore, the Iranians are playing a game of brinksmanship. President Trump has already shown that he is reluctant to use force against Iran, and the leading European powers seek to appease Iran and maintain the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).