The October Showdown with Iran

Oil prices are at historic lows. International sanctions have deprived the country of basic goods, cut off Iran’s banks, and targeted the regime’s leadership. The COVID-19 pandemic has killed at least 6,000 Iranians, and nearly 100,000 have been infected with the virus, though experts say the true numbers are probably much higher. To top it off, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently articulated a US plan to enforce “snapback sanctions” against Iran in the UN Security Council, bringing back the onerous sanctions that were relieved with the enactment of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

And yet, with all these roadblocks, Iran has marched forward with its plan to control Syria and Lebanon, where it threatens Israel; harasses US naval vessels in the Persian Gulf; and continues to enrich uranium at ever-higher levels in retaliation for what it says is the failure of the JCPOA’s signatories to fully honor the agreement.

This is no ordinary regime. One of the arguments the Obama administration made in favor of the JCPOA was that the agreement would more closely tether the Iranians to the international community, with the goal of building trust and moderating the regime’s behavior. After all, what nation doesn’t want to see its people healthy and prosperous, the argument went. The Iranians, after all, are just like the rest of us.

But Iran’s recent behavior reveals they are not like the Western nations who became Iran’s partners as part of the JCPOA, said Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. One hint is that Iran, which he refers to as a “missionary regime,” is led by a cleric, and not a politician.