All Eyes on the Senate

The Democrats are in a good position to keep control of the House of Representatives in November. But without a majority in the Senate, they won’t have a rubber stamp on legislation. Even more important, Senate Democrats won’t be able to control who is approved for the Supreme Court. So with all due respect to the office of Speaker of the House — and it is important — the more critical of the two chambers for both parties is the Senate. Given the probability that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire in the next term —and Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito may retire even before that — the battle over the Senate could shape America for decades to come.

Democrats have the advantage this year in that Republicans are on the defensive. That is, more incumbent Republicans are defending their seats (23) than Democrats (12). Today, Republicans have a 53–47 majority. This means that Democrats need to flip at least three seats from red to blue, assuming Joe Biden is elected. If there’s a 50–50 tie, the Democratic vice president will cast the deciding vote.

If Trump is reelected, Democrats will have to pick up at least four seats, because then the vice president, who is also president of the Senate, will be Mike Pence. And the task will be especially complicated if you take into account that the Democrats currently hold a seat in solidly red Alabama. In 2018, Democratic Doug Jones defeated a scandal-ridden opponent to win the seat vacated by then–attorney general Jeff Sessions. But those circumstances won’t repeat themselves, and in 2020 the Republican nominee (who may be Jeff Sessions) is expected to retake the seat. So realistically, Democrats need to unseat at least four Republican incumbents, and make that five if Trump is reelected. That may be a tall order.

So who are the candidates to watch, and where are the Democrats concentrating their efforts? The key races are in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina.