Will He or Won’t He?

Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn’t given up on his desire to move forward. For him, it’s about his personal legacy. He’s also aware that he’ll never get better terms. With a wide coalition in Israel and a friendly administration in Washington, the circumstances for annexation are ideal. As he and his Likud partners have said, it’s an opportunity not to be missed. But the events of the last few weeks have stymied the issue, and now it’s no longer clear what Israel will be able to annex and when.

First, there are the power battles within the Trump administration itself. While US ambassador to Israel David Friedman is an enthusiastic supporter of annexation, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and close advisor, has reservations. Kushner is the man responsible for selling the plan to the Gulf States — Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He hears their objections, and it seems his enthusiasm is waning.

In addition, Trump has his hands full on several fronts: the COVID-19 pandemic, the flailing economy, and the George Floyd protests. Annexation is a risk. It might pass without protest, or it could inflame the Middle East. Trump’s Evangelical base is reportedly pressuring Trump to finish the job. Trump certainly needs those voters in November, but there are other considerations.

It’s worth noting that as of this writing, the president has not personally involved himself in the debate. Rather, Kushner’s peace team is leading the way and drafting the final recommendations for Trump to sign. Kushner takes the view that if annexation is going to happen, it needs to happen in a way that advances the peace plan in its entirety, and not in just one aspect. That is, if you’re giving something to Israel, make a concession to the Palestinians. One option reportedly considered is to transfer parts of Area C, currently under Israeli civil and military jurisdiction, to the Palestinians and call it Area B. Naturally, this proposal wasn’t greeted with much enthusiasm in Jerusalem, and White House special representative Avi Berkowitz returned to Washington last week after three unproductive meetings on the issue with Netanyahu.