Collision Course

Indeed, after the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, and with the domestic economy struggling, a foreign policy success to campaign on is simply crucial for Biden. This dynamic has put the two leaders on a collision course.

But there’s a catch for Biden. If you look at the basket of possible sanctions, they include cutting Russia off from the SWIFT international banking system, as well as sanctions on Russian banks and companies. But some voices have warned that kicking Russia out of the international system could cause a chain reaction with a serious impact on many Western companies, including leading American corporations.

Until now, the American response has been limited. The United States has repeatedly called out Russian attempts to manufacture a pretext for an invasion. But it has also tried to neutralize one of Putin’s most critical levers of power by making arrangements with Egypt, Azerbaijan, and other countries to backfill whatever natural gas flows to Europe are cut off by a vindictive Russia, during midwinter. The fear of this was the reason the Europeans, and the Germans in particular, were slow to get involved in the crisis.

Another thing Biden has achieved is, in effect, bringing NATO back to life. In his view, if Ukraine falls, then the Baltic nations are the next in line, which effectively means reigniting the Cold War. But more generally, if the United States can’t stop Russia from swallowing Ukraine, who will stop Putin? From Biden’s perspective, America has to return to its position of world leadership.