"It is not at all too late. Everyone understands that Russia can capture Kyiv— but then what?"
In 1998, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman advanced the “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention.” Put simply, the theory posited that war is impossible between two countries that have McDonald’s restaurants, the point being that as capitalism and globalization spread across the world, nations have less and less motivation to go to war. While the theory’s basic assumption is not strictly accurate — there were McDonald’s restaurants in the Balkans, which saw a bloody ethnic war in the ’90s — Friedman’s theory seems perfectly sound in principle. After all, living standards have improved dramatically since the ’90s, and the idea of war in Europe feels like a distant memory.
Not anymore.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has left the world stunned and outraged, more than anything by its sheer brazenness. The Russian attack was unprovoked and unjustified, with only the flimsiest of pretexts to veil its aggression. The United States’ response has met with mixed reactions. Some think the United States could have been more forceful and aggressive, while many experts believe the American response was optimal, as Putin had already made up his mind to invade in spite of sanctions, and one or two more wouldn’t have deterred him.
But that already belongs to the past. A much more important question is what’s next, what Ukraine’s and Europe’s futures will look like in the aftermath of the invasion. The Baltic countries are already wondering if they’ll be next and whether the United States will be there to protect them.
Professor Benjamin Jensen of the Marine Corps University’s School of Advanced Warfighting (SAW) told Mishpacha that it’s “very premature” to talk about the fall of Ukraine.
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